233. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future
Podcast: Freakonomics RadioPublished On: Thu Jan 14 2016
Description: Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren't punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science -- and now even you could become a superforecaster.
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